A snapshot of the Transition movement in 2011

What might the Transition movement look like in three years time? We present this fictional look into the future to inspire and provoke debate.

Overall the “community response to peak oil and climate change” has begun to take shape in many communities. The rising prices of food, fuel and resultant economic difficulties of peak oil have been met by people working together to make their money go further, and in ways that also reduce their environmental impact.

1. Local initiatives

There are many more local Transition initiatives, with more coming all the time, and many of the early ones well advanced in active Energy Descent Plans. Transition has begun to make a lot of difference to people’s lives, especially those active in it.

  • Social: It provides a rich social life, with frequent social events big and small: shared meals, parties, meetings. Typically after a shared meal there might be swapping and trading, or a lecture, film or discussion to govern the Initiative, often followed by music and dancing. People know each other better, and work closely together in many ways.
  • Food: People get a lot more of their food locally, often organic. They share produce grown in their gardens and allotments and some new community gardens. They have well-organised deliveries from local farms and farmers’ markets. There are a growing number of community-owned agriculture schemes, and edge-of-town market gardens. A few are experimenting with pig and chicken clubs, and with community bakeries milling local flour. Some people are cooking prepared meals for time-pressed neighbours. Many people have learned to cook and garden for the first time.
  • Transport: Fuel has become much more expensive, so the Transport theme groups have organised ride share schemes, collection and delivery systems for children, shoppers and social events. People often have no cars, or very small cars, as they have access to borrowed or hired larger vehicles when they need them. There is a lot more cycling among the fit and healthy.
  • Household Energy: There are lots of ‘insulation clubs’ where people have learned the best ways of reducing household heating needs and help each other do it. Numerous tricks and tips to use less energy have become popular. A few places have projects started to provide local sources of electricity through community-owned small power stations, using wastes, wind, rivers or whatever.
  • Re-use, recycling, repair: Many local schemes have been started to extend the life of clothes, repair goods and appliances, creating some part-time employment. Much of the local food is distributed in re-usable containers. People are learning what goods last longer and can be repaired when needed.
  • Local economy: People have begun to do a lot of organised trading and exchange with each other, sometimes for money, sometimes for local currency, but very often as favours. They give and receive goods that they no longer want, help each other with childcare, rides, deliveries, and many other services. Groups of young people offer ‘technical support’ on anything from computers to DVDs. This enables people’s money to go much further, and provides some income for those without jobs. They have identified the like-minded local independent businesses and tradespeople whom they preferentially patronise, and give them ratings and recommendations on their websites.
  • Other aspects of community: People are learning that grassroots self-organisation takes a certain amount of effort and are beginning to learn how to do it well. Some people volunteer to look after aspects of the whole of the local transition initiative. There are groups set up to handle conflicts between people, to provide emotional support and counselling when needed, but also to co-ordinate the initiative: to help keep the theme groups in touch with each other and working synergistically, to plan for the future, and to systematically consult on policy decisions.

2. Regional hubs

A variety of forms of regional hub have emerged from a strong network of local initiatives who have decided that such a Hub would aid their work. Some link initiatives in a town or city, others in a rural area or bioregion. These are formed out of members of local initiatives who offer to work at the regional level. There is now an annual Transition cities convergence, where best practice is shared and several similar meetings for more rural hubs. Cities have begun to develop their own version of the Transition model.

  • Supporting new initiatives: The regional hubs have become the first point of contact for those in that area, offering support and mentoring for new initiatives. They have taken over much responsibility for the process of becoming a formal Transition Initiative.
  • Supportng existing initiatives: The regional hubs organise links between the various food groups, tranport groups, and other theme groups to help them work synergistically. They share best practice to help the local initiatives avoid problems and correct mistakes. They have begun to take on much of the training aspects, not just for new initiatives, but in reskilling, conflict resolution, organisation and other areas where local initiatives are too small to provide it effectively.
  • Government links: A few are working with local government on their local sustainability plans, and have received funding from them.
  • Business links: Several have been identifying local independent businesses with good ethical and environmental practices, working with them and promoting them to their communities. Many of these businesses have become financial sponsors of the local initiatives and regional hubs.

3. National Support Networks

There are now support networks at the national level in the UK: Transition Support Scotland, Transition Ireland Network, Transition Support Wales and Transition England, and a growing number of national support networks in other countries around the world, with strong networks in the USA and New Zealand leading the way.

  • Infrastructure: With much of the day-to-day support for local initiatives now devolved to the regional hubs, the national networks concentrate more on providing infrastructure and co-ordination. They are supporting ongoing development of communications systems that are available for use by local initiatives and regional hubs. A great variety of different systems have developed, but with common standards so that they can share resources and hold discussions across them.
  • Training and education: The national support networks now develop much of the materials used for the training done by the regional hubs. They have developed strong links with universities some of whom are applying transition concepts to themselves, some of whom are running courses in transition issues, adding a practical dimension to their courses, and several who are doing basic research to support and strengthen the transition model. Transition training has begun to receive support and funding from various national skills and training programmes.
  • Transition Business: The national networks have begun to develop a strong economic function. They work with each other and outside organisations to identify products and companies that have strong environmental and community credentials. Feeding this information through the network creates a good captive market for such businesses to serve. The networks themselves have developed a range of consultancy services based on the expertise of the regional and local networks, that provides income while effecting constructive change.

4. Transition Movement Worldwide

Transition Network still remains, and performs a co-ordinating role for the national networks, helping them to work synergistically, avoid errors that each other have made, and supporting planning and overall policy. Especially, it promotes ethical trading between nations, concentrating on products not available locally.

A multi-level structure has emerged naturally - local, regional, national, global - but without any top-down control.

Transition concepts of building a positive future are increasingly common in everyday conversation, TV and other media. The shift away from business as usual, or shocked/doomladen responses to the need to downsize and relocalise is well underway.