Challenges

Transition Town Lewes is concerned with two future events, Climate Change and Peak Oil?. We're concerned to reduce our impact on each of these events, and to reduce the impact of these events on Lewes.

Climate Change

The "climate change" that we're worried about is essentially global warming caused by human greenhouse gas emissions. It's likely to be accompanied by increasing extreme weather events, including drought, flooding and hurricanes. Some people think the world is warming naturally, but that just gives even greater cause for concern - if the world were naturally cooling, then greenhouse gas emissions might just counteract that.

Peak Oil

"Peak Oil" describes the time (in the coming 5 to 30 years, according to most oil experts) when oil production stops increasing because the remaining reserves are hard to extract, for geological or economic reasons. It's a concern if this happens while demand is still growing, because that could lead to major economic recession. You may be old enough to remember the three day week, and power cuts of the 1970s, which happened when global oil production dipped by about 4%, for political reasons. Well, we could be in for more of the same - or worse. "Peak gas" is a similar concern, though coal reserves may be good for a century or more.

We're particularly concerned with disruptive peak oil, whereby production peaks before demand. We're not so concerned if production drops in response to a drop in demand as a response to the climate change challenge.

The impact of Lewes

Since most greenhouse gas emissions are a result of burning fossil fuels, Lewes' impact on both events is similar. The more fossil fuel energy we use at home, at work, and on the roads, the worse for both climate change and peak oil. There are some differences, though.

Not much electricity is generated from oil, so our main use of oil is on the roads. However, most of the energy (something like 80%) used in the home is gas for heating and cooking, and the UK is now an importer of gas, so we do need to be concerned about peak gas.

All of those energy uses yield greenhouse gases - mostly carbon dioxide. So, they contribute to global warming, too. However, there are other sources of greenhouse gases that aren't directly related to peak oil. For example, methane emissions from farmyard animals, and landfill sites, as well as carbon dioxide emissions from concrete manufacture (apart from the energy used to make concrete, it actually gives off CO2 as it cures), are also of concern. It's the CO2 from concrete which means that nuclear power plants and wind turbines are not entirely carbon neutral, although both are at least 20 times better than coal.

Thomas Paine said in The Rights of Man, "My country is the world". As citizens of the world, we have a responsibility to minimize our contribution to both climate change, and peak oil.

The best response that Lewes can make the concerns above is simply to use less energy. We need to insulate our homes better, make better use of public transport, and run our businesses with better energy efficiency. It'll also help if we can use less electricity, and even generate some of our own. Where new buildings are put up, there's great scope to design them as low energy buildings from the outset - making the best use of the sunlight, for example.

The impact on Lewes

As residents of Lewes, we owe it to ourselves to minimise the impacts of climate change and peak oil upon Lewes.

Now, it's possible - desireable even - that oil production will peak not because we start to run out of oil, but because we reduce our demand for the stuff. It's desirable, because that's just about the only way can possibly prevent climate change. However, it's more likely that it's too late, and we're going to have to deal with both events as they occur. So, with that in mind, we have two more concerns to deal with: the impact of climate change and peak oil on Lewes. What will those impacts be?

The most significant physical impact of climate change on Lewes is likely to be increased frequency of flooding. However, it's also worth looking at what a warmer climate will do to local agriculture, and local wildlife. For example, will the chalk soil of the Downs get enough water to support the current mix of vegetation?

In future, fossil fuels (and hence all energy) will be much more expensive than it is now. The could be because we're short of fossil fuels, or it could be because of economic policies designed to reduce climate change. Either way, we'll either want or need to reduce our dependence on fossil fuels. The Government seems set to commit ourselves to using 60% less by 2050, but some people think that might not be enough.

If it happens that we see fuel demand exceeding supply, we could see power cuts, or simply be unable to pay the price of fuel. We could even see huge disruption to the world's economy similar to the stock market crash of 1929, not to mention the rise of fascism and world war that ensued. In these scenarios, we may wish to be generating our own power, walking or cycling to work, and eating local food or growing our own.

Conclusion

These are the starting points of our concerns. You may have noticed a circularity, that the impacts of peak oil (which, unfortunately won't happen of its own accord in time to prevent global warming) will require us to take the actions that we ought to be taking now in order to prevent both disruptive peak oil and climate change. So, we propose to start now.

Now, we know that some people are taking action, and we hope that governments and corporations are, too. They're certainly making encouraging noises. However, individuals acting alone frequently lack accurate information about what to do. Governments can provide the economic environment by way of carrots and sticks. What we propose to do is fill the gaps, just as soon as we've figured out what they are!

Get involved: contact hello [at] TransitionTownLewes.org.uk