Climate Change
Hardly a day goes by without a new story about Climate Change in the media - whether it's extreme weather events that could be linked to the changing climate, new studies on species that face extinction, or new plans for renewable energy projects to help reduce our carbon emissions.
What is clear about Climate Change, is that it is being driven by human activities, and that unless we rapidly stop adding to atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, the viability of Earth as a habitat for millions of species of animals and millions of human beings is under threat.
Our message is that based upon the existing climate research and what we know about how the Earth system functions, the scale of action we need to take goes far beyond what is being considered at present. Changing lightbulbs and using energy more efficiently is a useful start, but ultimately our goal should be to redesign our energy systems and lifestyles so that we can meet our needs and thrive as a society, whilst eliminating our need for fossil fuels.
How far do we need to go?
Leicester City Council showed great ambition on climate change in the 1990s by setting a target of achieving a 50% reduction of carbon emissions on 1990 levels by 2025. The UK Government's Climate Change Bill sets the target of a 60% reduction in emissions by 2050, which is most likely going to be increased to a target of 80% reductions once the bill has gone through parliament.
However, even if these targets are met, and similar cuts are achieved elsewhere in the UK and overseas, the current climate change science implies that these reductions will be insufficient to give us a strong chance of avoiding dangerous climate change.
The 80% reduction target currently being advocated by many UK NGOs as an alternative to the UK’s 60% target would only give around a 50:50 chance of avoiding a 2º temperature rise (above pre-industrial temperatures), which is recognised by the EU and the UK government as a dangerous temperature threshold that should not be passed. Research undertaken in 2006 found that reductions of the order of 90-95% by 2050 are required in the UK to make it likely that the 2º target is met.
However, since the modelling on which many of these targets were based was carried out, further research has identified that the climate seems to be more sensitive to greenhouse gas emissions than previously thought, so even more substantial emission reductions are likely to be required.
In addition, the 2º target itself has recently been shown to be inadequate - researchers looking at tipping points in the climate system have recognised that Greenland is likely to irreversibly melt, bringing an eventual sea level rise of 6 metres, if the average global temperature increases by 1-2º above pre-industrial levels. The earth has already warmed by 0.8º, and 0.6º of further warming is already locked into the climate system from current emissions. There is therefore already a significant chance of Greenland melting - our task is to act urgently to make that eventuality less likely.
What this means is that to minimise the chances of dangerous climate change, the UK (and Leicester) needs to urgently and substantially reduce emissions, on a level far beyond that considered by national or local government to date. A response of the order advocated by the Centre for Alternative Technology (CAT) in their report Zero Carbon Britain will be required - in CAT’s report, the UK economy emits no greenhouse gases whatsoever by 2027.
The scale of action required is clearly massive, and what we do in Leicester will only be a small part of the bigger picture. However, it's vital that we move forward with the vision of how our city can function without using fossil fuels, and take action now to work towards that goal.
Further Reading
Online Reading
Zero Carbon Britain
A strategy for making the UK a zero emission country within 20 years.
Carbon Equity - Climate Code Red
Excellent report on the scale of the climate emergency.
Real Climate
Climate science by climate scientists. Includes really useful FAQ sections, and responses to common arguments by climate sceptics.
IPCC, the Intergovernmental Panel On Climate Change
Reports from climate scientists representing the international consensus position on climate change.
IPPR - High Stakes
A 2006 review of carbon emission cuts required to avoid dangerous climate change.
WWF - 80% Challenge
Makes the case for an 80% reduction in UK emissions.
Hansen et al - Climate Change and Trace Gases
Academic paper emphasizing the scale of the climate challenge.
Lenton et al - Tipping Elements in the Earth’s Climate System
Academic paper on the idea of tipping points in the climate system.
Books
Mark Lynas - 6 Degrees
Review of the changes we can expect with up to 6 degrees of warming.
George Monbiot - Heat
A strategy for reducing UK emissions by 90% by 2030.