Oil at $100 a barrel shock!
With the recent news that the price of oil hitting the ‘magic’ figure of $100 a barrel, the media began asking questions such as how much oil do we have left, how long will it last and what will we replace it with in the coming years? While we know that peak oil is inevitable and we can argue over when exactly it will occur, it is not the only thing that will force us to consider changing to a more sustainable lifestyle. According to ‘Peak Everything: Waking up to the Century of Declines’, the latest book by Richard Heinberg (one of the speakers at the Fuelling the Future conference in Kinsale in 2005) it’s not just oil that will peak. This century will see the start of declines in other fossil fuels such as coal and gas, in uranium, wild fish stocks, minerals such as copper, zinc and platinum and freshwater. We are, he says, in a ‘classic self-reinforcing feedback loop’ in which the abundant energy from fossil fuels causes increased extraction of other resources and production of goods which leads to population growth with its inevitable demand for more energy which leads to more fossil fuel extraction etc. Last century saw the fastest expansion of human societies in history due largely to the availability of cheap fossil fuels; this century will see contraction and simplification. The question is, will it happen in an intelligent, controlled and planned way, or chaotically.
This is often a taboo subject, the ‘elephant in the living room’ that is so obvious, yet so frequently avoided because it is too hard to contemplate, so difficult to discuss and let’s face it, unlikely to win any votes. So where is all the good news in this scenario? In a recent Community Powerdown class at the College of Further Education, these topics were discussed and on the board were two columns with the headings: ‘Things we’ll have more of after Peak Oil’ and ‘Things we’ll have less of after Peak Oil’. Under the first were things like: ‘Time’, ‘Creativity’, ‘Community Participation’ and ‘Local fresh produce’. Under the second column were words such as: ‘Traffic’, ‘Pollution’ and ‘Obesity’. Now that doesn’t sound too bad, does it? Perhaps we were being too idealistic, focusing too much on the positive. But Heinberg also considers things that won’t ever peak, including community, cooperation, happiness, ingenuity, artistry, satisfaction from honest work well done, free time. To this we could add qualities such as compassion and wisdom. This is all getting much better. Rob Hopkins, former teacher of Permaculture at the FE College, maintains that the Transition Town process is a way of ‘unlocking the collective genius’ of a community.
The bad news, that certain things are going to peak, is not about wallowing in doom and gloom scenarios, but rather a call to action to find and tap into our collective genius. The good news is that there are a great many things that will never peak. Humans lived for thousands of years without oil. Our genius will be in finding alternatives, finding solutions and using what makes us truly human, such as our innate creative spirit, our communicative cooperation, our ingenuity and our ability to explore and find new ways of doing things. Let’s keep on tapping.
August 2007: PEAK OIL IN MAINSTREAM MEDIA SHOCK!
At last, the message seems to be getting through about Peak Oil, and not before time.
During a visit to Graham Strouts in June, we were out in the heat of the afternoon sun (you remember – a big round shiny thing in the sky) planting some beetroot and leeks when we heard the words ‘Peak Oil’ on his solar powered radio. We excitedly turned it up and there was David Strahan talking about his book ‘The Last Oil Shock’ on Today FM and painting a pretty grim picture of the future to the worried sounding reporter who asked if there was anything that could be done about it. Strahan replied that Transition Towns such as Kinsale and Totnes were doing great things to prepare their communities for a low energy future. We started jumping up and down, thrilled at yet another mention of TTK and then realised we’d flattened all Graham’s leeks.
Then, on Monday 18th June, RTE 1 showed ‘Future Shock: The End of the Oil Age’ in which George Lee presented a full-on report on the future energy crisis from Ireland’s point of view. Sadly he neglected to give any clues as to how we should prepare for Peak Oil, but hopefully it will raise awareness of the issues and get people talking. And finally, the International Energy Agency has admitted, after years of telling us that there is no danger of an oil shortage, that we can expect an ‘oil crunch’ in five years’ time. As we have suspected all along the supply of oil will very soon be unable to keep up with demand, not just because there is less and less of the stuff in the ground, but because more and more people all over the world are buying cars and want the same luxuries and appliances that we in the developed world have for so long taken for granted. And who are we to say they can’t have them?
A CHALLENGE
While it is tempting to avoid the obvious doom and gloom predictions about this imminent crisis, there must be a reality check. Peak Oil is going to happen and very soon. And everyone will be affected by it.
But a crisis is also a time of great opportunity and Transition Town Kinsale has been working to prepare for a future in which things can be better, not worse. In the next few years the there will be increasingly less cheap energy available, for sure. So we must begin to prepare now, and by making changes now, we won’t have more drastic changes forced upon us in the future. We have to reduce the amount of energy we consume and we need start to localize our economy so that we depend less and less on food, products and services that have to travel distances to get here. For example, why are we buying apples from New Zealand when we could be growing them locally? By becoming more self-reliant we will become more resilient, secure and prosperous and ultimately able to withstand the slings and arrows that Peak Oil is going to fire at us. We will also be reducing our carbon dioxide emissions and ensuring a cleaner environment for future generations.
But the question must be asked: why is it being left up to handful of volunteers to prepare for what will be one of the biggest challenges humanity has to face?
TTK, Sustainable Clonakilty, Sustainable Bandon, West Cork Sustain in Bantry, FADA in Newbridge and numerous Transition Towns across the UK are all grassroots groups taking responsibility for something that surely governments should be tackling head-on? We are fortunate to have the backing of the Town Council; Kinsale Further Education College has given assistance generously on several occasions; many businesses are kind enough to donate prizes for fundraisers and support has come from others in the town in a variety of ways.
Our numbers are slowly growing, and at each public meeting – held on the third Thursday of the month – new faces appear, eager to help out at this crucial time. But there is a lot of work to be done, and only so much that can be achieved by a small group of dedicated souls. We need more volunteers to set up groups to deal with energy, tourism, education and youth issues.
If you think you can contribute, come to a meeting and help us to make Kinsale a more sustainable place. We are also looking for premises in the town to set up a sustainability centre. This will act as an information hub, a space for meetings, workshops and courses and a place where people can get advice on energy efficiency, recycling, gardening, composting and all things sustainable.
If you know of somewhere or would like to offer an office or other suitable space, please contact: info@transitiontownkinsale.org