Peak Oil is a turning point in modern industrial society!

The question is: what happens next?''' ''' ''' What is it? What will it mean to us?'''

For 150 years we have acted as if oil would never run out. Consumption has grown seven-fold in the last 50 years and it is still increasing. But oil is a finite resource – there is only so much of it, and we now know there is not enough to continue to meet the world-wide demand for it!!.

Once the maximum rate of production has been reached, production has peaked …. and then starts to decline .... and the oil becomes more of a problem to extract.

‘Peak Oil’ is the term used to describe this point

We are about to hit world-wide production limits that will dramatically change our life-styles, because we use oil for so many things such as energy, consumer products, and in agricuture.

WHEN WILL PEAK OIL OCCUR?

There are politicians who say not for another 50 years. However, a large body of reputable geologists and scientists say between now and 2012. Who do we believe?

In 1999 North Sea oil production peaked, and in 1971 US production peaked – the US now produces half the oil it once did.

Most reputable geologists agree that the majority of oil-producing nations have in fact already peaked.

The only place with large stocks of oil that are considered not yet to have peaked is the Middle East, in particular Saudi Arabia - and even this is seriously questioned by most experts, including American giant Exxon, who are now predicting a peak there within 5 years. As shortages take hold the UK will become increasingly dependent for its oil on the politically unstable countries of the Middle East. ''' WHAT WILL HAPPEN AFTER PEAK OIL?'''

No one can be sure. Most likely, short term, we’ll see a period of see-sawing oil prices as market forces try to adjust to reduced supply and increasing demand world-wide. Prices are predicted to double or more.

Consequently, insincere alliances, and/or warring between the world’s major oil consuming countries- including India and China, are a distinct possibility. Even now there’s no slack in the system. That’s why a single event like hurricane Katrina can send oil prices soaring. ''' DO WE REALLY DEPEND ON OIL?'''

The Western World depends on oil for 40% of the energy we use – heat, light, production, etc – and 95% of transport fuel. Modern food production methods need vast quantities of oil – not only for mechanised equipment and transport, but also for artificial fertilizers, pesticides and weed killers. ''' SURELY WE CAN USE OTHER SOURCES OF ENERGY?'''

What about natural gas? This currently accounts for over 20% of the world’s energy use –mainly for heating and electricity; not transport. However, natural gas is also a finite resource, and is also expected to peak in the near future - and then decline even more rapidly than oil. We all saw what happened last year when Russia turned off Europe’s tap…….and the UK is at the end of the pipeline!

Couldn’t we go back to coal and nuclear? Many of those in power do see this as the best way forward. But the environmental consequences would be immensely destructive: an increased use of coal would cause a huge rise in carbon dioxide emissions – which will intensify global warming. An increased use of nuclear would cause greater risk from accident or attack, along with waste disposal issues.

So can’t we develop alternative energy sources – the ‘Renewables’? Yes, we can. But all these put together won’t fill the gap left by cheap oil. • Wind, wave, solar, tidal, thermal - all provide only a tiny fraction of the energy we currently use. • Some bio-fuels not only require more oil to produce than they replace, they include crops desperately needed for food. Already there have been riots in Mexico because farmers are selling corn – the country’s staple food crop – to the US to be turned into bio-fuels for vehicles. • Hydrogen is not an energy source. It’s like electricity – it has to be produced …..mainly by using oil!